There is some evidence that the Dow and SP500 uptrends are exhausted. A turn may be in our near future, maybe as early as the half of May, lasting until the end of the year.
Attached is the SP500 chart. As a Gann rule, tops form on low volume. We can see that volume is very low. The RSI is showing bearish divergence. Adding to the evidence is the break of the trendline and the impulsive move from down from the top, wave (i) or (a).
So, where are we on our forecast? The picture shows the forecast and the line in yellow is what the market has done so far. As you see March and April stalled at virtually the same levels. Critical eurotalk is ahead of us, and the forecast is not so great to say the least. We’ll check back in a few months so see where we stand and how the forecast held up.
EURUSD is stuck between 2 important price levels. 1.30 and 1.3145.
We can count 5 waves down from 1.3379 and that means we are in an ABC correction right now. So, we should see some retrace before resuming the trend down, but we need confirmatation. 1.3020/1.3030 seems a strong support level. If we have a wave v On left we should bounce off from that support and look for higher highs.
On a break we have a strong resistance and trade lower to 1.28 level where the next strong support is.
This week I am posting an hourly and daily chart.
The daily shows the forming of what in EW is referred to as a “double zigzag” the 2nd leg should have the same angle and range as the first leg, depicted by the yellow line. The hourly shows a head and shoulder formation forming.
There may be a retrace and the TL of the pitchfork
would have to hold.
Above 1.3305, a firm close would mean all systems go, below 1.3090 would mean reconsider. Below 1.30 would be a continuation of the bearish trend.
Following picture shows the law of vibration in the GBPUSD.
This is not a forecast.
