A retest of the upward channel followed to the grey area. There is also another more bearish count where a retest of the 1875 lows could be in the charts. On the upside the channel resistance must be broken.

Levels to watch are 2920 resistance need a break there to go higher and 2750, a break there will put 2440 in sight.

I will try to update the site at least once a week. This new site is not going to be as up to date as the last one. For more regular updates please follow my twitter. The updates will be randomly chosen, whatever market offers an opportunity.

I am working on a  newsletter and hopefully I can provide one very soon. I just want it to be of value and not solely based on Elliott Waves as that gives to many options of where price can go.

I have also been doing very interesting studies on the Elliott Wave theory. Soon there will be a book out by Ian Copsey on “Harmonic Elliott Waves” hopefully before the end of the year, which will shed new light on the bottlenecks in Elliott Wave and will greatly improve forecasting probabilities, very often up till the pip!

So, lots of  new things to look forward to and all with the goal to become a better trader!

Since the 1875 low on June 7, a turn date called out on this site,  the EURUSD gained 600 pips to 2466 where it fell today to 2204.

The move from 1875 can be counted as a double zigzag wave (A) and today’s low is then a wave (B) and on the chart you can see a channel forming where wave (B) found support on the channel support line.

This channel has the potential to carry price all the way to 27600 where wave (C) = Wave (A). That would happen on July 4, which is  a Sunday, but more importantly, the next turn day for this pair could be on July 6, which would be the first trading day after the July 5th observance holiday for Independence Day. 2760 is also a major Gann resistance area.

GBPUSD made up over 700 pips since the turn day on June 6, 2010, a day called out by this site.

It has now broken upward out of the channel and is fighting resistance from a longer term downward channel. If price breaks clear of this resistance the next hurdle will be at 5050 and a clear break above will give room to attack 5160 which is a Gann resistance. Price has been very choppy going upwards in what looks like a double zigzag, but with price threatening to beak out of the channel we need to see if something else is happening. Nothing is is off the table when it comes to corrective waves. The next big cycle date is 7/7/2010. Cycle days may come a little late, or a little early but the intermediate term bias is cautiously up, but not excluding a dip here and there.

June 23, 2010

GBPUSD made up over 700 pips since the turn day on June 6, 2010, a day called out by this site.

It has now broken upward out of the channel and is fighting resistance from a longer term downward channel. If price breaks clear of this resistance the next hurdle will be at 5050 and a clear break above will give room to attack 5160 which is a Gann resistance. Price has been very choppy going upwards in what looks like a double zigzag, but with price threatening to beak out of the channel we need to see if something else is happening. Nothing is is off the table when it comes to corrective waves. The next big cycle date is 7/7/2010. Cycle days may come a little late, or a little early but the intermediate term bias is cautiously up, but not excluding a dip here and there.

There are 2 probabilities on the EURUSD:

• The move from 1875 is completed
• The move has a bit more upside to 2450 area 

The pattern from 1875 to 2417 is corrective and question is if it is leg 1 of an elongated correction, or if the correction is about to complete and the downtrend is resuming.

Looking at the MACD we can see divergence forming but as long as price is within the upward channel I am not attempting any shorts.

On a bounce from the channel support there is a good long opportunity against channel support, Target 2450. On a break there is a huge r/r trade opportunity with a target of at least 1.1875.

June 20, 2010

There are 2 probabilities on the EURUSD:

• The move from 1875 is completed
• The move has a bit more upside to 2450 area

The pattern from 1875 to 2417 is corrective and question is if it is leg 1 of an elongated correction, or if the correction is about to complete and the downtrend is resuming.

Looking at the MACD we can see divergence forming but as long as price is within the upward channel I am not attempting any shorts.

On a bounce from the channel support there is a good long opportunity against channel support, Target 2450. On a break there is a huge r/r trade opportunity with a target of at least 1.1875.

By Elliott Wave International

The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.

Jim Puplava: I want to come back to government spending, but first I want to move onto the stock market. In your last two Elliott Wave Theorist issues, you laid out a scenario that would put the Dow and S&P, which in your opinion may have peaked on April 26, as the top from here. You feel that this top is the biggest top formation of all time, a multi-century top and we could head straight down in a six-year collapse that would end in 2016 that could see a substantial portion of the S&P and the Dow wiped out in a similar way that we saw between 1929 and 1933. Let’s talk about that and the reasoning behind it.

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.

RP: Yes, you’re exactly right. I did a lot of work on technical forms, cycle forms and Elliott wave forms in April and May and put them in a double issue. Let’s talk about the cycles first.

The 7¼-year cycle has been quite regular since the first bottom in 1980. The next bottom was at the crash in October 1987. The next one was November 1994, which is when the economy went through four years with lots of layoffs; it was a recessionary period throughout until that cycle bottomed. The next one was between September 2001, which was the 9/11 attack, and the October 2002 bottom. And the latest one was at the low in March 2009. All those periods are 7¼ years apart, so we are in the uptrend portion of the 7¼-year cycle.

However, notice for example that in 1987, the market went up until August of that year and then bottomed in October, just a couple of months later. So the decline occurred very, very late in the cycle. This time it occurred a little bit earlier in the cycle, topping in ’07 and bottoming in ’09. In the current cycle, prices should peak the earliest of all of them. It’s what we in the cycle prediction business call “left-hand translation.” The market’s already gone up for about a year, and I think that’s just about enough. I think we’re going to spend most of the cycle going down. But the important thing to note is that the next bottom is due in 2016. That means I think we’re going to have a repeat of what happened between 1930—which was the top of the rally following the 1929 crash—and the July 1932 low. Instead of taking two years, it’s going to take about six years.

It’s going to be a very long decline. It’s going to be interrupted by many, many rallies, just as the decline from 1930 to 1932 was. And every time it bottoms and rallies, people are going to say “OK, that’s enough; it’s over.” But it won’t be over. It’s just going to be a long, long process. I think you and I will probably be talking a few times during this period. One of the interesting aspects of this process is that optimism should actually remain dominant through the first three years of the cycle. That will carry us into 2012. Even though prices will be edging lower, most people are going to think it’s a buy, and you shouldn’t get out of your stocks, and recovery is just around the corner, probably for the next three years. And then, for the final half of the cycle, the final three years, that’s when you’ll get the capitulation phase when everyone finally gives up.

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.